Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.