UtahPolicy/Dan Jones published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
According to the results, 27.0% of participants will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 8 to June 17 among 614 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.