Today, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 52.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.1% for Trump.
What Polly's component methods expect
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 56.4% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump lost fourteen percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
The index models forecast of 53.7% for the Democratic candidate is notably low relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models predicted a vote share of 53.1% for Barack Obama.