Results of a new poll carried out by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were released. The poll asked respondents from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 25 to April 27 with 800 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.