Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were announced. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 29 to September 7. A total of 751 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.3%. Compared to his numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.1 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.