Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 27 to August 29 with 800 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Trump is currently at 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.