CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 30 to September 2 among 1088 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 50.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.