Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
According to the results, 41.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 5 to September 7 with 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 49.7%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.