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North Carolina: Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Suffolk University poll

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Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Suffolk University poll results
41

Clinton

44

Trump

According to the results, 41.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from September 5 to September 7 with 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 49.7%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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