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North Carolina: Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Emerson poll


Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were circulated. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results




The results show that 43.0% of respondents will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from August 27 to August 29. A total of 800 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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