CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 30 to September 2 with 1088 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.4%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.