Results of a new poll carried out by Civitas (R) were circulated. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, billionaire Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from September 11 to September 12 with 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.3%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.1% and Trump 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.1 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.