OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.1%. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.