New Morning Consult poll: Clinton holds negligible advantage

Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Morning Consult poll results
46

Clinton

42

Trump

Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via Internet from September 15 to September 16 among 1639 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. On September 2 Clinton obtained only 51.2% in the Morning Consult poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.

Results compared to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 51.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the Morning Consult poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.7 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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