Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Morning Consult poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from September 15 to September 16 among 1639 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. On September 2 Clinton obtained only 51.2% in the Morning Consult poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the Morning Consult poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.7 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.