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Latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll in Illinois: Trump trails by a whopping margin

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NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
57

Clinton

32

Trump

According to the results, 57.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from March 4 to March 10 among 1968 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois. Hence, Polly's forecast is 5.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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