Clout Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 9 to July 13 among 701 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, the PollyVote is 6.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.