The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 52.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.