The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.2% for Clinton, and 52.8% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 52.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.