Jerome model: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 86.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 13.6%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.