The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.6%. In comparison, on September 18, Clinton was predicted to gain only 51.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton currently runs at 54.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.