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DeSart model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will end up with 53.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 53.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.9% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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