DeSart model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 36.0% for Clinton, and 64.0% for Trump in Kansas.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 7.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.