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DeSart model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 66.5% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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