Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.