KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 57.0% of respondents would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11, among a random sample of 678 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 64.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.