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Bio-index model update: Clinton now at 58.3%

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Variable 36 in Trump’s bio-index was coded incorrectly. Trump’s brother Freddy died from alcoholism in 1981, at age 41. Due to the variable recoding, the forecast has changed.

The updated vote-share forecasts are 58.3% for Clinton and 41.7% for Trump. This is the highest forecast for Clinton of all components aggregated in the PollyVote.

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