Bio-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Bio-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.3% for Clinton, and 41.7% for Trump. In comparison, on September 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 59.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual index model. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 4.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Bio-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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