The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.0%. In comparison, on September 18 Trump was predicted to garner 49.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.7%. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.