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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.0%. In comparison, on September 18 Trump was predicted to garner 49.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.7%. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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