Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were spread. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.