Results of a new national poll conducted by LA Times were published. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
The results show that 41.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 9 to September 15. A total of 2497 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 46.6% for Clinton and 53.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 49.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 4.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the LA Times poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.1% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 6.3 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.