PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 61.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 15 to April 17. A total of 879 registered voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's prediction is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.