Morning CallMorning Call published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Morning CallMorning Call poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 12 and September 16. The sample size was 405 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-5.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Morning CallMorning Call poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.