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Ohio: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.7% of the vote.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data. The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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