The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 50.9% of the vote.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.