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New LA Times poll: Trump holds comfortable lead


Results of a new national poll conducted by LA Times were published. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

LA Times poll results




Of those who responded, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 17. A total of 2507 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 46.1% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump. To compare: 51.7% was obtained by Clinton in the LA Times poll on September 2, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.

Results in comparison to other polls

Trump is currently at 49.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 4.9 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 6.9 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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