Clout Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 10 to May 13 among 657 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump. In the latest Clout Research (R) poll on July 13 Clinton received 51.8%, while Trump received only 48.2%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 41.3% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 9.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.