NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that 57.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from March 4 to March 10, among a random sample of 1968 registered voters.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Illinois. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 5.6 points below her polling numbers.