Star TribuneStar Tribune published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Star TribuneStar Tribune poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 12 to September 14, among a random sample of 625 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.