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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.0% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.3%.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 57.0% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

The econometric models forecast of 49.7% for the Democrats is notably low relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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