Results of a new poll administered by UtahPolicy/Dan Jones were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Utah for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
Of those who replied, 27.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 8 to June 17. A total of 614 registered voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.