KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 8 and September 11. The sample size was 678 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 64.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.