Jerome model: Clinton is in the lead
The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 86.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 13.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 13.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.