Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points better.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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