Emerson poll in Connecticut: Clinton with 15 points lead

Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

According to the results, 50.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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