Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.