DeSart model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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