Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 13 with 500 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-4.5 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.