OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.