The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump. In comparison, on September 16 Trump was still predicted to achieve 49.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.