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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump. In comparison, on September 16 Trump was still predicted to achieve 49.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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