Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
The results show that 43.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, Polly's prediction is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.