Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 47.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.