UtahPolicy/Dan Jones published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
According to the results, 27.0% of participants plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 8 to June 17, among a random sample of 614 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.